Electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa is projected to grow by 50% by 2035, driven by cooling demand, desalination and rapid infrastructure expansion, according to the IEA.
Electricity consumption growth outpaces global averages
Electricity consumption across the Middle East and North Africa has tripled between 2000 and 2024, fueled by demographic growth and rising incomes, according to the new IEA report The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa.
By 2035, demand is expected to increase by a further 50%, equivalent to the current combined electricity use of Germany and Spain. The region has recorded the third-largest growth in global electricity demand since the start of the century, behind only China and India.
“Electricity capacity in the region is set to grow by more than 300 GW over the next decade, three times the current total capacity of Saudi Arabia,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Growth will be driven by population expansion, economic activity, urbanization, industrialization, electric mobility and digital infrastructure such as data centers.
Cooling and desalination drive electricity consumption
Extreme heat and water scarcity are central to the region’s demand profile. Around 40% of projected electricity consumption growth through 2035 will be linked to air conditioning and desalination plants.
The IEA highlights energy efficiency as a critical lever. The average efficiency of air conditioners in the region is less than half that of Japan. Improving standards could reduce peak demand growth by an amount equivalent to Iraq’s entire installed capacity.
Power mix still dominated by gas and oil
More than 90% of electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa currently comes from gas and oil. Several countries are reducing oil use in power generation, redirecting crude toward exports or higher value-added uses.
Under existing policies, oil’s share in electricity generation is expected to decline from 20% to 5% by 2035. Natural gas is projected to cover roughly half of future demand growth, while solar PV capacity is forecast to expand tenfold, lifting renewables to around 25% of total generation. Nuclear capacity is also expected to triple.
Electricity consumption and infrastructure investment
Investment in the MENA electricity sector reached $44 billion in 2024, and is projected to increase by 50% by 2035. Nearly 40% of this spending will be directed toward grid infrastructure to reduce transmission and distribution losses, currently double the global average.
Modernizing networks and expanding regional interconnections are considered essential to ensure supply security. Integrating higher shares of renewables will require storage systems, demand management and flexible gas-fired capacity to balance variability.
Alternative scenarios: higher oil and gas reliance
If diversification slows, oil and gas demand for electricity generation could increase by 25% by 2035. This would reduce hydrocarbon export revenues by $80 billion and raise import costs by approximately $20 billion.
The IEA concludes that a balanced transition combining efficiency, renewables and nuclear energy is the only sustainable pathway to protect regional energy security and fiscal stability.
Also read: “World Future Energy Summit 2026, the UAE showcase the region’s energy transition ambition“
