As COP31 opens in Türkiye, 157 countries have submitted or formalised their 2035 climate targets, but significant emissions gaps remain under the Paris Agreement.
NDC climate targets: Progress ahead of COP31
As COP31 begins, several countries, including Argentina, Egypt, Iran and Vietnam, have yet to submit their updated national climate targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), for 2035.
From 9 to 20 November 2026, Antalya, Türkiye, will host the 31st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31), the world’s leading international forum for climate negotiations. Countries will attend the summit with their new NDCs for 2035.
When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, governments already recognised that the emissions reductions outlined in their national climate commitments would be insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. They therefore agreed to periodically strengthen those commitments.
The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, concluded at COP28 in 2023, confirmed that the collective impact of existing NDCs remained inadequate. It called on all Parties to submit revised commitments aligned with the 1.5°C target.
This highlighted the need for greater ambition in both 2030 commitments and the new targets for 2035. Governments were required to submit updated NDCs by February 2025, incorporating stronger 2030 goals and new 2035 targets. However, at least 95% of governments missed the deadline.
NDC climate targets deliver additional emissions cuts, but global efforts fall short
Updated every five years under the Paris Agreement, NDC climate targets provide an indication of how close the world is to limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C.
To date, 157 countries have submitted or formalised their new NDC targets for 2035. Together, these countries account for approximately 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 87% of the world’s population.
The updated commitments are expected to deliver an additional 1.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in emissions reductions.
However, these efforts remain insufficient to meet international climate objectives.
To remain within the 1.5°C warming limit, an additional 30.7 GtCO2e in emissions reductions would be required by 2035. For the 2°C threshold, the remaining gap stands at 19.7 GtCO2e.
These estimates are based on unconditional NDCs, which represent emissions reduction commitments that countries undertake to achieve using their own resources.
When conditional NDCs, which depend on climate finance and other forms of support, are included, the emissions gap for 2035 narrows to 26.3 GtCO2e for the 1.5°C target and 15.3 GtCO2e for the 2°C threshold.
The report Indicators for Tracking NDC Progress, published by the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) and updated in June 2026, examines how countries define and structure their climate commitments.
The analysis highlights the considerable diversity of national climate targets, with commitments varying significantly in format, geographical coverage and sectoral scope.
Among the most common approaches, 48% of Parties have adopted emissions reduction targets measured against a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
Meanwhile, 45% have chosen absolute emissions reduction targets, either economy-wide or measured against a historical baseline year.
NDC climate targets show greater ambition across economic sectors
The latest data on sectoral and greenhouse gas coverage indicate growing global ambition.
89% of countries have established economy-wide NDCs, while 84% cover all sectors identified under the 2006 guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The energy sector is included in the commitments of 100% of countries. Agriculture and waste are each covered by 92%, while land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) account for 88%, and industrial processes and product use (IPPU) for 84%.
International cooperation is another important component of national climate strategies.
78% of participating countries have expressed an intention or willingness to engage in voluntary cooperation through international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with the aim of strengthening their climate ambition.
Article 6 provides for the use of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), allowing countries to cooperate in achieving their emissions reduction commitments.
Data gaps and methodological differences remain significant
The Paris Agreement introduced the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), which requires all Parties to regularly submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs).
The framework was designed to strengthen mutual trust, support global accountability and encourage progressively more ambitious climate action.
An analysis of BTRs submitted by December 2025 shows relatively strong formal participation, with more than half of countries having submitted their reports.
However, the findings also reveal persistent data gaps and considerable methodological differences, including among G20 economies.
These shortcomings highlight the challenges of consistently monitoring national climate commitments and assessing collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
