How climate risks are reshaping electoral processes
Climate change and natural hazards are exerting growing pressure on electoral systems and democratic stability, in some cases influencing election outcomes. A detailed analysis found that in 2024 alone, at least 23 electoral events, including primary, local, national and supranational elections across 18 countries, were affected by extreme weather, with consequences for millions of voters worldwide. Over the past two decades, at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been influenced by climate-related impacts.
Natural disasters and democratic resilience under stress
These findings, published by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, represent the first global assessment of how natural hazards are affecting democratic resilience.
The number of disasters such as floods, hurricanes and heatwaves has tripled over the past four decades. In line with climate science projections, elections are expected to become increasingly exposed to these risks. The analysis shows that climate change is affecting the entire electoral cycle, damaging infrastructure, displacing voters and forcing election management bodies to implement last-minute procedural changes.
The study covers the following countries:
Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Czechia, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Maldives, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria, Romania, Senegal, Tuvalu and the United States.
Case studies highlight gaps and resilience strategies
To mitigate the impact of extreme events, the report urges election organizers to work closely with meteorological experts, environmental agencies and humanitarian organizations. It also highlights several case studies and best practices:
Mozambique remains one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in Africa. Cyclones in 2019 displaced more than 700,000 people and destroyed over 3,200 classrooms, many of which were used as polling and voter registration centers. The government postponed voter registration deadlines for the 2022 elections, but provided limited guidance on managing the disruption. The case underscores the need for clear legal frameworks to guide electoral authorities during extreme events.
In California, between autumn 2015 and the end of 2018, 104 deadly wildfires destroyed tens of thousands of structures, displaced 250,000 people and disrupted two election cycles. Despite these challenges, 93% of counties introduced new procedures to address ballot shortages and technological failures.
The Philippines’ 2025 national and local elections took place during one of the longest and most intense heatwaves on record, with heat indices reaching 42 to 47 °C in several regions. These conditions affected logistics, campaigning and voting day operations. Despite the challenges, the elections were successfully conducted on May 12, 2025, demonstrating both institutional resilience and gaps in climate risk planning.
Peru faces recurring natural hazards such as floods and landslides that threaten critical electoral infrastructure. During the 2022 regional and municipal elections, electoral staff received dedicated disaster risk management training. Increasing the number of polling stations also helped prevent and mitigate disruptions caused by extreme events.
In regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where infrastructure gaps and climate exposure often intersect, the link between climate risks and elections is likely to become even more critical in the coming years.
Read the full report The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections