Global renewable capacity 2030 is projected to exceed 4,600 GW in new additions, driven primarily by solar PV, despite grid constraints and policy shifts in major markets.
Global renewable capacity expansion accelerates toward 2030
According to the latest Renewables 2025 report by the International Energy Agency, renewable capacity is on track to more than double compared with current levels. By the end of the decade, more than 4,600 gigawatts of new renewable power capacity will be added globally, equivalent to the combined installed capacity of China, the European Union and Japan today.
The analysis highlights sustained growth across renewable technologies, despite ongoing challenges related to supply chains, financing costs and grid integration. Solar photovoltaic energy will account for roughly 80 percent of total additions, followed by wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal.
Solar dominance and policy momentum in emerging markets
Solar PV remains the most competitive and scalable renewable technology worldwide. Lower capital costs and shorter permitting timelines continue to make it the main driver of renewable capacity growth.
Emerging economies are accelerating deployment. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Indonesia are expanding solar installations through public auctions and incentive schemes. India is projected to become the world’s second largest market for renewable expansion after China and is on course to exceed its 2030 targets.
Growth is not limited to utility scale projects. Distributed rooftop solar is expanding rapidly, supported by corporate power purchase agreements and merchant installations, which are expected to represent around 30 percent of global solar growth by 2030.
Offshore wind faces headwinds, onshore wind remains strategic
In contrast to solar, offshore wind faces a more complex outlook. The IEA projects that new offshore wind additions could be 25 percent lower than 2024 levels, reflecting supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory shifts in key markets.
Nevertheless, both onshore and offshore wind remain essential to balancing electricity systems and diversifying generation portfolios. As costs stabilize and investment confidence returns, activity is expected to recover in China, Europe and India, where several previously delayed projects are being reactivated.
Hydropower and bioenergy will continue to provide system stability and flexibility, while geothermal capacity is forecast to reach record installation levels in the United States, Japan and Indonesia.
Grid integration and energy storage become critical
As renewable capacity expands, pressure on transmission infrastructure is intensifying. The IEA identifies grid integration as one of the most urgent challenges of the coming decade.
High penetration of solar and wind is already leading to negative pricing events and curtailment in several markets, signaling insufficient system flexibility. In response, interest in pumped storage hydropower is rising sharply, with growth expected to accelerate nearly 80 percent compared with the previous five years.
Governments are increasingly launching dedicated auctions for capacity and energy storage, recognizing their central role in maintaining system stability and affordability. However, the agency stresses that investment in grids and storage must accelerate further to safeguard global electricity security.
Policy shifts in China and the United States slow projections
The report includes a downward revision of renewable capacity growth in China and the United States, which together account for roughly half of global renewable installations.
In the United States, the gradual phase out of federal tax incentives and regulatory adjustments have reduced growth forecasts by 50 percent compared with last year. In China, the shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions has affected project profitability and tempered new investments.
Despite these adjustments, China’s manufacturing dominance remains significant. More than 90 percent of the global solar PV supply chain and rare earth materials used in wind turbines are expected to remain concentrated in China through 2030, maintaining exposure to geopolitical supply risks.
Europe, India and emerging economies offset slower growth elsewhere
Negative revisions in China and the United States are partly offset by stronger momentum in India, Europe and several developing economies that have raised their climate ambitions.
The European Union continues to advance renewable deployment through the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive and the 2024 electricity market reform, promoting larger auctions, accelerated permitting and the expansion of local energy communities.
Across Africa and the Middle East, improved cost competitiveness is enabling faster renewable rollouts. The IEA also highlights the growing role of private sector commitments, with many developers reaffirming or expanding their 2030 decarbonization plans.
Limited progress in transport and heating sectors
While renewable electricity expands rapidly, deployment in transport and heating remains comparatively modest.
In transport, the renewable share is expected to rise from 4% to 6% by 2030, driven by electric vehicles in Europe and China and biofuel uptake in Brazil, Indonesia and India. In heating, renewable penetration is forecast to increase from 14% to 18% , supported by heat pumps and solar thermal systems.
Although progress is slower than in the power sector, these segments remain critical to reducing fossil fuel dependence in residential and industrial applications.
Investment and energy security at the center of the transition
“Global renewable growth in the coming years will be dominated by solar, with meaningful contributions from wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. “As their role in electricity systems expands, governments must pay close attention to supply chain security and grid integration.”
Renewable capacity growth remains one of the defining trends of the current decade. The challenge ahead lies not only in installing new capacity, but in ensuring that it is effectively connected, integrated and capable of meeting rising global demand while preserving system stability and economic sustainability.
