Iran war negotiations remain frozen amid rising geopolitical pressure
Nearly three months after the start of the war in Iran, negotiations remain at a standstill, with neither Tehran nor Washington willing to back down. The Iranian military has threatened to “open new fronts” against the United States if military operations resume, following reports that President Donald Trump is considering restarting attacks due to the diplomatic deadlock.
The prolonged conflict is worsening the global energy crisis and increasing fears over the stability of oil markets and strategic maritime routes in the Middle East.
Pressure is also mounting in both the United States and Israel for renewed military action against Iran. Some officials argue that stronger military pressure could weaken Tehran’s negotiating position and force the country back to the table.
However, not everyone agrees with this approach. “There is one main problem with this theory: we have already tested it repeatedly, and Iran has not capitulated,” Danny Citrinowicz, researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the Iran division in Israeli military intelligence, told Reuters.
Iran war and Hormuz control reshape the energy crisis
On Tuesday, May 19, oil prices declined after Trump announced on social media that a planned military strike against Iran had been postponed. The US President also warned that Washington was ready to resume hostilities if no agreement was reached.
Brent crude fell by 1.5%. On Tuesday morning, Brent traded at $110.08 per barrel, down $2.52 from the previous day but still $44 higher than one year ago. During the previous trading session, both Brent and WTI had reached their highest levels since early May.
So far, oil price increases have remained relatively contained. However, this does not suggest that the energy crisis is easing. On the contrary, the market is increasingly concerned about supply security and the long-term consequences of a prolonged conflict in the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz becomes central to Iran’s strategy
The negotiations have produced no meaningful progress toward ending the war in Iran. The United States is demanding that Tehran suspend uranium enrichment activities for 20 years and hand over its stockpiles to Washington.
Iran, meanwhile, is calling for an end to hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon, along with security guarantees, war reparations for damages caused by the United States and Israel, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict has reinforced for Tehran how strategically important Hormuz is for the survival of the regime and for its leverage in global energy markets.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also stated that Iran is requesting the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and an end to the US naval blockade, according to the IRNA news agency. These demands largely mirror proposals previously submitted by Tehran and firmly rejected by Washington.
IEA warns commercial oil stockpiles may last only weeks
The Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned during a meeting with G7 finance ministers in Paris that commercial oil inventories may last only a few more weeks, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.
The market surplus that existed before the war in Iran initially helped soften the impact of the energy crisis. However, those buffers are gradually disappearing as the conflict drags on.
To mitigate pressure on oil prices, the US Treasury Department extended its temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil until mid-June.
“Trump is making another dangerous gift to Vladimir Putin by once again extending sanctions relief for Russian oil,” Democratic Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren said in a joint statement.