Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have reached unprecedented levels, while Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure threaten oil exports and regional energy security.
Strait of Hormuz attacks reach their highest intensity since the war began
Iranian missile and drone attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have become more frequent and intense than ever. Conditions in the strategic waterway are now at their worst since US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic triggered the war in Iran seven months ago, drawing the wider Middle East into a prolonged regional conflict.
On Sunday, October 11 alone, Iran attacked six vessels, according to monitoring by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Assuming an average of 20 to 25 daily vessel transits, Tehran would have achieved a strike rate of approximately 25%.
According to calculations by the Financial Times, Sunday marked the most severe day for attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began.
Data compiled by the newspaper from UKMTO reports and information provided by European sources indicate that Iran struck 24 vessels in the two weeks leading up to October 11. The second most intense period occurred during the first two weeks of March, at the beginning of the conflict, when Tehran targeted 13 ships.
According to maritime security company Vanguard, three of the vessels struck were tankers carrying refined petroleum products. Two others were crude oil tankers belonging to China’s New Treasure Shipping and South Korea’s Sinokor.
An Indian container ship was also among the vessels targeted. Other attacks on ships with Indian crews had been reported in the preceding days.
Strait of Hormuz attacks drive another decline in shipping traffic
In September, oil flows from the Gulf averaged 15.5 million barrels per day, their highest level since the war began, according to commodity analytics platform Kpler.
However, renewed Iranian attacks have since caused shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to fall again, triggering another sharp decline in oil exports from the region.
Only 2.9 million barrels of oil passed through Hormuz on October 11, the lowest daily volume recorded so far this month, according to figures released by Kpler on October 13.
The company cautioned that the figures could be revised upwards as additional vessels are identified through satellite imagery. Nevertheless, the weekly average remained approximately 43% below pre-war levels.
Global oil supply rises in September, but the recovery remains fragile
Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) month on month in September, reaching 102.3 mb/d, supported by higher production from Gulf countries.
According to the International Energy Agency’s October 2026 Oil Market Report, Saudi Arabia led production increases among OPEC+ members, while the United Arab Emirates drove growth among non-OPEC+ producers.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by an annual average of 5.8 mb/d in 2026, reaching 100.7 mb/d, before recovering in 2027.
However, renewed attacks in the Gulf and against vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz have made that recovery increasingly fragile.
Iran changes its attack tactics ahead of US midterm elections
US military officials told Reuters that Iran has significantly changed its offensive tactics.
Following the destruction of much of Iran’s radar capabilities by US forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly began deploying unarmed observers aboard small boats to identify potential targets, including US warships.
Under this revised strategy, Tehran is also seeking to expand the geographical reach of its attacks into the Gulf of Oman and more distant waters.
According to the US officials’ assessment, the objective is to drive another increase in global oil prices, countering Western efforts to contain rising energy costs and potentially influence the outcome of the US midterm elections.
Saudi Arabia faces its worst week as Houthi attacks escalate
Saudi Arabia has also experienced a sharp escalation in hostilities. Over six days, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck Riyadh’s international airport, an oil refinery in the Saudi capital and Saudi Aramco’s headquarters.
The Yemeni rebel group has gone as far as threatening Vision 2030, the economic transformation programme championed by Saudi Crown Prince and de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy away from crude oil production and sales.
After declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, Houthi forces seized a significant stretch of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, strengthening their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Saudi-backed Yemeni government subsequently launched a counteroffensive against the Houthis, who responded by targeting Saudi infrastructure.
The events of the past week represent an unprecedented escalation in the Kingdom’s modern history.
Between October 8 and 14, attacks on King Khalid International Airport caused civilian casualties, leaving at least 17 people dead and more than 300 injured.
Cruise missile and drone strikes also targeted a refinery in Riyadh, while another attack hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, setting the facility on fire.
Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago argued that the latest developments represent a new war rather than merely an intensification of the previous conflict.
“For a decade, missile warfare against Saudi Arabia largely spared its cities. Attacks focused on border areas, military bases and storage tanks, while air defences intercepted most threats over populated centres. This week, that pattern broke down.”
The escalation has also affected the Kingdom’s international energy engagement. Five leading executives from the global energy industry cancelled their in-person attendance at the WPC Energy Congress, an event closely associated with the ambitions of Saudi Vision 2030.
