Fossil fuel emissions expected to fall by nearly 0.5% worldwide
Fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by nearly 0.5% globally in 2026 as a result of the Hormuz crisis.
The conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil and gas prices and continuing to weigh on the global economy. As the war drags on and new fronts emerge, including renewed tensions in Yemen, governments are increasingly turning to alternatives to oil and gas. One of these is coal.
Fossil fuel emissions from coal rise, but lower oil and gas use more than offsets the increase
The latest estimates suggest that coal demand will increase by 1.2% this year, partly as a consequence of the war in the Middle East. However, an analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the increase in global emissions associated with higher coal consumption, much of which is unrelated to the disruption in Hormuz, could be more than offset by falling oil and gas use linked to the conflict.
The analysis indicates that fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions will fall by around 0.5% in 2026 compared with 2025 levels. Fossil fuels account for two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) had initially expected global coal demand to decline in 2026. In its 2025 coal report, published in mid-December, the agency said falling demand in China would outweigh the impact of US policies supporting coal under President Donald Trump, resulting in an overall decline in global consumption.
In its September 2026 update, however, the IEA revised its outlook and forecast that global coal demand will increase by 1.2% in 2026, rather than recording a slight decline.
The IEA’s latest report also highlighted the impact of El Niño, which is increasing cooling demand while reducing hydropower generation. Other factors are also influencing coal demand this year, including rising levels of curtailed wind and solar power in China.
Gas demand falls as high prices reshape consumption
For natural gas, the IEA had forecast in January 2026 that global demand would grow by 2% this year. By July, after several months of war in Iran, it had revised its outlook to a 0.6% decline in global gas demand in 2026.
Since then, pressure on demand from high gas prices has continued to intensify. In the first six months of the year, for example, China’s demand for liquefied natural gas declined. Concerns over security of supply have pushed Beijing to prioritise renewable energy, while imported LNG and coal account for an increasingly limited share of the country’s energy mix.
Oil demand expected to fall 2.4% in 2026
For oil, the IEA was still forecasting an increase in demand of 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026. However, as the Hormuz crisis has continued, the outlook has changed significantly.
By September, the IEA was forecasting a further decline in oil demand of 2.5 million bpd in 2026, equivalent to a 2.4% reduction compared with 2025 levels.
The latest energy crisis, alongside a range of other factors, is likely to continue influencing fossil fuel demand next year and potentially beyond. The IEA had initially expected oil demand to rise well above 2025 levels in 2027. It now expects demand to remain broadly stable for two years.
At the same time, electric vehicle sales have reached record levels across the world’s major automotive markets.
The IEA has also highlighted the interdependence between coal and gas. Coal demand could rise again in 2027 if gas prices remain high, or decline if gas prices ease. In the United States, higher gas prices had already triggered a return to coal in 2025.
Hormuz crisis could have longer-term effects on fossil fuel emissions
Governments in countries that had planned to rely on liquefied natural gas imports now appear increasingly inclined to turn towards domestically produced clean energy, or to continue using coal for longer than previously expected.
Against this backdrop, the analysis concludes that the 2026 energy crisis could lead to a reduction in fossil fuel consumption and associated fossil fuel emissions, both in the short term and over a longer horizon.