Saudi Arabia has lost a crucial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz after drone attacks shut the Petroline, while the Houthi advance puts Bab al-Mandeb under growing pressure.
Route beyond Hormuz blocked after Saudi Petroline shutdown
With the conflict in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline had become a crucial alternative for transporting the Kingdom’s crude to global markets. The pipeline was shut down on September 11 after a series of drone attacks launched from Iraq. The strikes have effectively removed one of Saudi Arabia’s main alternatives for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Built in the 1980s and stretching for 1,200 km, the pipeline is also known as Petroline. It carries crude from Saudi oil fields in the east of the country to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
With a maximum capacity of around 7 million barrels per day, the pipeline had become increasingly important since the Middle East conflict disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had increased westward crude flows through the pipeline to nearly 4 million barrels per day, equivalent to around 4% of global supply, according to the IEA. A year earlier, volumes stood at around 973,000 barrels per day.
Until now, the pipeline had therefore served as an emergency route, allowing the world’s largest oil exporter to maintain part of its exports even when traditional routes through the Arabian Gulf became inaccessible. In September 2025, before the attacks, Saudi Arabia produced almost 10 million barrels of oil per day, but output had fallen to 6 million barrels per day by August, according to the IEA.
Also read: Damage to Saudi oil pipeline sparks race against time for global crude supply
Traffic through Hormuz is recovering but remains far below levels seen before the conflict began in February. Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded 90 transits in the first week of September. Before the war, around 130 vessels passed through the strait each day.
Route beyond Hormuz blocked as Houthis strengthen control over Bab al-Mandeb
The problem now is that Yemen’s Houthi rebels have strengthened their control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the waterway connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal.
Fighting against Yemen’s internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government, the group last week managed to seize the stretch of Yemen’s coastline facing the Red Sea, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which had emerged as an alternative to Hormuz following the conflict between the United States and Iran. In recent months, attention had again turned to Bab al-Mandeb, its importance for international oil flows and its vulnerability.
Analysts at Melius Research said that around 3 million barrels of oil per day were passing through Bab al-Mandeb on average in early September. This week, however, they said flows could now have fallen to zero.
Because of Houthi attacks, most Saudi traffic heading from Yanbu has been redirected north towards the Mediterranean, either through the Suez Canal or via Egypt’s SUMED pipeline. However, the Houthis have also begun targeting Saudi shipping farther north.
The group seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014 at the start of the civil war, forcing the government to relocate to Aden in the south. The following year, Saudi Arabia led an international coalition in support of the government and carried out a series of air strikes. Meanwhile, Yemen descended into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The new offensive has reignited hostilities in a war that was never formally brought to an end but had appeared to subside following a UN-mediated truce in 2022. The group is believed to have used the four-year period to strengthen its position and expand its missile and drone capabilities.
Tehran has long supported the Houthis against Israel and supplied them with weapons and military technology. However, the rebels also pursue their own objectives. The question now is what they intend to do with Bab al-Mandeb. Some analysts have suggested that, since the Houthis began attacking vessels in the Red Sea in 2023, they may have extracted illicit payments from some shipping agencies in exchange for safe passage.
Saudi Arabia seeks assurances from Egypt
Mirette Mabrouk, an expert at the Middle East Institute, told France 24 that Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is reportedly seeking assurances from Egypt that it will intervene to protect Bab al-Mandeb.
Mabrouk added that Egypt, whose Suez Canal route is under threat from Houthi activity, “will fight if necessary, but that is not the default position”.
“The default position,” she continued, “is to pursue every other option before reaching that point.”
