Although shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, security risks, weaker oil demand and geopolitical tensions continue to threaten global energy markets and vulnerable economies.
Hormuz remains open but significant risks persist
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, but major risks for the global economy remain. In recent weeks, oil prices have fallen significantly as traffic through the strategic waterway has gradually recovered. However, according to the latest monthly IEA Oil Market Report, a full return to normal operations will take time.
Shipping through Hormuz continues despite security threats
The conflict in the Middle East had brought maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz close to a standstill. Over recent months, Iran has sought to strengthen its control over the strait, together with Oman, claiming it intended to levy fees on passing vessels while blocking ships sailing outside the routes designated by Tehran.
Last week, the United States accused Iran of striking at least two commercial vessels with missiles or drones and responded by targeting Iranian military installations. Iran, in turn, launched missiles and drones on Sunday against US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.
According to shipping intelligence firm Kpler, the Strait of Hormuz remained open throughout the weekend, with 108 confirmed transits between 26 and 28 June. Traffic was busiest on 26 June before easing over the following days. Shipping routes, however, remained divided, with 39 vessels using the Omani route, 37 the Iranian route and nine following the IMO route. Kpler’s data suggest that the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate, although maritime security remains fragile.
Hormuz remains open but oil demand declines in the second quarter of 2026
Over the past four months, oil demand has shifted in response to the energy crisis. Across the Asia-Pacific region in particular, consumers have reduced fuel consumption while governments have introduced measures to shield households and businesses from the most severe economic impacts.
The latest IEA projections estimate that global oil demand fell by nearly 5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Overall, the agency expects global oil demand to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 compared with 2025. This represents a downward revision of 700,000 barrels per day from the May report, reflecting second-quarter deliveries that dropped by 5 million barrels per day year-on-year due to higher fuel prices and reduced availability of refined petroleum products.
Energy crisis reinforces Southeast Asia’s structural vulnerabilities
Disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz have exposed the structural weaknesses of Southeast Asia’s energy system. According to the IEA, stronger policy action will be needed to improve energy security as the region’s energy demand continues to rise rapidly.
The 2026 edition of the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook provides a comprehensive assessment of the latest energy developments. So far, governments have focused mainly on short-term measures to curb demand, including encouraging remote working. However, the report argues that deeper structural vulnerabilities within the energy system must also be addressed.
Based on current policies, Southeast Asia’s annual energy import bill is projected to reach USD 400 billion by 2050, equivalent to around 5% of the region’s economy.
Vulnerable economies remain exposed to price shocks
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz provides immediate relief to energy markets, but vulnerable economies remain at risk from higher food and fuel prices.
Restoring shipping flows marks an important first step towards the gradual recovery of international trade. However, UNCTAD stresses that the more than 100-day disruption to shipping through Hormuz has already imposed significant costs on the global economy.
The most vulnerable economies have been particularly exposed to sharp increases in oil and fertiliser prices. These shocks could have lasting inflationary effects, disproportionately affecting lower-income households, where rising prices make essential goods and services, including food and healthcare, increasingly difficult to afford.
“These shocks will continue to be felt for many months, with developing countries bearing the heaviest burden. I urge all parties to respect the ceasefire and redouble their efforts,” said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
