The US-Iran war may have permanently reshaped global oil markets, with geopolitical risk now emerging as a structural driver of crude prices.
The US-Iran war could permanently reshape oil markets
The impact of the US-Iran war on oil prices may extend far beyond the current conflict. What could emerge from a future agreement between Washington and Tehran may look fundamentally different from the pre-war energy landscape.
A possible deal between the United States and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving unresolved questions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program and returning large volumes of crude oil to international markets. At the same time, global oil inventories, which partially cushioned the effects of the recent energy crisis, are declining at a record pace.
Even if an agreement is reached, however, restoring pre-war conditions will take time. From now on, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical instability after Iran demonstrated its ability to disrupt energy flows at any moment.
Until a few months ago, the closure of Hormuz was considered only a theoretical scenario discussed by analysts. No US president had previously ventured into direct war with Iran precisely to avoid triggering such a risk. Donald Trump changed that perception, turning the possibility into a concrete reality. Even after a future agreement, there is no guarantee Tehran would not decide to close the channel again.
A permanent geopolitical risk premium on oil prices
Even after the crisis ends, markets may continue to price in a structural geopolitical risk premium because of the strategic leverage gained by Iran during the conflict.
“There will be a permanent premium on prices tied to a permanently riskier operating environment,” Clayton Seigle, energy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Axios.
In the short term, confidence in the reopening of Hormuz will largely depend on whether shipping companies and crews feel safe transiting through the Strait. Speaking to Axios, UT-Austin analyst Ben Cahill said uncertainty still surrounds the possibility of Iran imposing tariffs, alongside broader concerns related to security conditions and insurance costs.
“It could become a stop-and-go process,” Cahill added.
As the International Energy Agency explained in its mid-May oil market report, once mine-clearing operations are completed it could still take at least two or three months to fully restore export operations. Gulf producers will also need time to return production levels to normal.
The Strait of Hormuz toll issue
A future agreement with Iran may not formally include a transit toll, but Iranian officials could still introduce new fees for oil tankers crossing the Strait.
According to Edward Fishman, former US State Department official and current analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, this could represent a major strategic advantage for Tehran even if the fee remains relatively limited. Fishman suggested that shipping companies could end up paying tens of billions of dollars annually, potentially even reaching $100 billion.
From the perspective of oil traders and shipping operators, the cost for a VLCC, or Very Large Crude Carrier, could amount to around $1 per barrel. For this reason, Fishman argued that the private sector would likely accept paying the toll if it ensured safe passage through the Strait.
US-Iran war leaves the Gulf permanently more dangerous
The real stakes of any agreement with Iran appear to be oil prices and control of Hormuz rather than the nuclear issue itself, which increasingly looks like a secondary justification.
As US political scientist Robert Pape noted, if oil prices remain above $90 per barrel even after Hormuz reopens, then the main strategic consequence of the US-Iran war may already have been determined.
According to Pape, the central issue is no longer whether ships can physically cross the Strait. The real question is whether global markets now believe the Gulf has become permanently dangerous.
If that perception takes hold, Iran may have discovered something far more powerful than a total closure of Hormuz: controlled instability capable of reshaping global power balances without the need to win a conventional war.
Behind all of this lies a much simpler strategic question, Pape argued: “will oil prices return to prewar levels?” The short answer is that this is far from certain.
