The Iran war has exposed a shift in global energy markets, with China increasingly able to influence oil prices through strategic reserves, domestic production and lower crude imports
China oil price: Is Beijing now shaping the global crude market?
The war in Iran and the disruption of energy supplies from the Middle East caught many countries off guard, hitting Asian economies particularly hard because of their greater dependence on Gulf imports. China, by contrast, has shown how foresight and pragmatism can turn a country from a potential victim of a global crisis into a strategist pursuing greater energy autonomy.
China may now be in a position to influence global oil prices to such an extent that it could potentially use this leverage across international energy markets. So, is China now helping determine the price of oil? And if so, how did Beijing get there?
China oil price strategy: Beijing’s response to supply shocks
First, China has dramatically expanded its crude oil storage capacity, building reserves estimated at between 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion barrels, potentially enough to cover more than 100 days of average imports.
Official storage figures remain unavailable because Beijing does not disclose them, although China may still have managed to purchase Iranian oil to some extent in recent months.
At the same time, the country has increased domestic oil production to a record 4.3 million barrels per day, while accelerating electric vehicle adoption to reduce its dependence on imported fuels. As a temporary measure, China has also cut exports of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
China’s crude oil imports have fallen sharply in recent months. In June, they were reportedly down by more than 41% year on year, falling to 7.12 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2016.
The decline came after China imported a record 11.55 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for 16% of global oil demand.
“If Chinese imports had remained at pre-war levels, oil prices would almost certainly be much higher today,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Salih Yilmaz told Axios in late May. “The country was probably one of the key reasons oil prices did not surge much higher during the Hormuz blockade,” the analyst said.
Iran war reshapes China’s role in global oil markets
Oil prices will continue to be affected by geopolitical instability. Beyond this impact, however, the war in Iran appears to have exposed another shift in the global energy landscape.
For decades, China was primarily regarded as a major oil importer and consumer. That may no longer fully describe its role.
By demonstrating its ability to adjust crude imports, refinery operations, stock releases and fuel exports, China has been able to directly alter global market balances, helping contain oil prices by reducing demand.
This is why several analyses increasingly place China alongside major energy powers such as Saudi Arabia, and historically Russia and the United States, countries capable of influencing oil prices rather than simply adapting to them.
